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2005) 4. Is there any drought frequency threshold under which silver fir-Norway spruce-common beech mixed would collapse? If so, is it modified by browsing intensity? Because browsing weakens regeneration, we expect this threshold, if any, How do climate change and browsing affect mature stand structure (basal area, number of trees, 2006. ,
, There is a great uncertainty, inherent in models, about future climate, and future development of ungulate populations and thus of browsing pressure (Bugmann, 1997). Therefore, we used Samsara2 model to take an exploratory approach, considering contrasted climatic and browsing modalities
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Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.102, issue.23, pp.8245-8250, 2005. ,
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The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming, Ecological Monographs, vol.83, issue.4, pp.419-439, 2013. ,
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,
, équilibre!forêt-gibier,!d'autant!plus!en!contexte!de!climat!changeant
! une! donnée! dont! on! sait! qu'elle! est! peu! fiable! et! peu! comparable! entre! massifs! forestiers.! En! France,! l'accès! aux! tableaux! de! chasse! est! aisé! mais! l'information!qu'ils!fournissent!ne!convient!pas.!Trouver!une!métrique,!d'une!part,!puis!la!diffuser! suffisamment!largement! ,
, Une!fois!la!métrique!définie!et!diffusée,!il!convient!de!s'accorder!sur!une!valeur!à!atteindre
effort!de!recherche.!Le!but!peut! être! celui! d'un! «!chargement! maximal!»! permettant! une! régénération! (ou! MSY! pour! Maximum Sustainable Yield)!, 2011. ,
, ! Quels outils pour y parvenir ?
, ! et!que!c'est!à!ces!niveaux!que!se!situe!le!principal!levier!d'action!du!gestionnaire.!De!la! même! manière,!en!matière!de!réaction!face!au!changement!climatique!, Nous!avons!montré!que!les!niveaux!intermédiaires!de!pression!semblent!les!plus!critiques
! option!tout!à!fait!plausible!dans!une!stratégie!d'adaptation!au!changement!climatique,!réorienter! totalement!la!composition!en!essences!de!peuplements!serait!inapproprié,!dans!la!mesure!où!les! essences!présentent!des!réponses!différentes!comme!nous!l'avons!évoqué!dans!ce!travail!, !Cependant, 2007. ,
potentielle!sous-estimation!du!rôle! de! l'adaptation! des! végétaux! aux! changement! climatique! (Jump! &! Peñuelas,! 2005).! Ainsi,! le! recours! au! mélange! avec! éventuellement! l'introduction! d'essences! thermophiles! semble! la! stratégie!la!moins!risquée!, 2012. ,
, les! interactions! avec! les! autres! compartiments! tels! que! le! sol! et! la! faune! du! sol,! les! autres! communautés! d'herbivores! et! insectes!:! une! alternative! serait! l'introduction! d'individus! provenant!de!conditions!plus!xériques,!mais!pour!la!même!espèce!ou!le!même!genre!
! pour! ce! qui! concerne! la! pression! d'abroutissement,! se! fixer! pour! but! une! suppression!totale!des!cervidés!paraîtrait!totalement!inapproprié,!tant!d'un!point!de!vue!social! qu'écologique.!Paysages!boisés!et!pâturages!sont!en!effet!le!fruit!d ,
!Si!réduire!le!nombre!d'herbivores!permet!d'améliorer!la!régénération,!les!exclure! totalement!entraînerait!une!perte!de!biodiversité!à!la!clef, !Il!vaut!donc!mieux! maintenir!de!faibles!densités!que!les!éradiquer!totalement!, 1990. ,
!problème!des!situations!de!déséquilibre!»!forêt-gibier!semble!donc!devoir!être! ,
, ! adaptée! à! chaque! situation,! et! donc! requérir! une! démarche! de! gestion! adaptative
! la! définissent! comme! une! approche! de! la! gestion! des! systèmes! naturels!s'appuyant!sur!l'apprentissage!issu!du!bon!sens, 2013. ,
!2016)!:!!-L'intégration! des! parties! prenantes! et! de! l'aspect! social,! par! une! sensibilisation! au! fonctionnement! d'un! écosystème.! Cela! suppose! des! travaux! de! recherche! à! même! de! susciter! une! réflexion! chez! tous! les! acteurs! pour! définir! des! cibles! accessibles, ! une! telle! gestion! des! forêts! à! surabondance! de! cervidés!soulève! trois! défis! ,
, ! en! associant! les! actions! menées! sur! la! végétation! à! celles! menées! sur! les! cervidés!-! par! exemple! améliorer! l'accessibilité! des! chasseurs!aux!zones!de!surabondance!et!à!faible!visibilité,!et!lorsque!ces!conditions!sont! remplies,! attendre! que! la! densité! de! cervidés! soit! suffisamment! faible! pour! lancer! des! travaux!sur!la!régénération.!Ils!insistent!sur!l'importance!d'un!effort!de!chasse!ciblé!sur! les!zones!de!surabondance!à!proximité!de!la!régénération, L'intégration! et! la! hiérarchisation! des! actions
! 2009) suggèrent! une! sylviculture! qui! tienne! compte! du! comportement!des!ongulés!(=!se!nourrir!dans!les!trouées!préférentiellement)!plutôt!que! de!simplement!chercher!à!contrôler!les!populations.!-Enfin!l'acquisition!de!données!pour!améliorer!cette!gestion!adaptative,!en!poursuivant!les! études! à! base! d'enclos-exclos,! et! en! cherchant! les! compromis! «!densité! de! cervidés!-! régénération!»! correspondant! à! divers! contextes! écologiques,! via! notamment! des! expérimentations!de!densités!contrôlées ,
!vers!un!idéal!proche!de!l'éthique!naturaliste!du!stoïcisme,!qui! invite!les!hommes!à!vivre!en!conformité!avec!la!nature,!c'est-à-dire!avec!leur!propre!nature ,
!Adaptation,!migration! or!extirpation:!climate!change!outcomes!for!tree!populations, !Evolutionary!Applications,!, vol.1, issue.1, pp.95-111, 2008. ,
!A!Deer!Browse!Survey!Method, !Journal!of!Mammalogy,!, vol.25, issue.2, pp.130-136, 1944. ,
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, The!European!Roe!Deer#:!the!Biology!of!Success,! (d, 1998.
!Regional!differences!in!climatic! responses! of! Norway! spruce! (Picea! abies! L.! Karst)! growth! in! Norway, ! Forest! Ecology! and! Management,!, vol.222, issue.1-3, pp.211-221, 2006. ,
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Transition between size classes site A, respectively) ,
, Supplementary figure D: Browsed silver fir seedlings inside plots fenced for 10 years then left unfenced for 17 years in site B
Browsing probability values predicted by model M1, versus mean winter temperature (°C) for Norway spruce at all sites but the Swedish one, Gällivare. Colors refer to lower (5%) and upper (95%) quantiles of seedlings height ,
Estimates of parameters of model M2 for each variable / interaction tested, with their confident interval (all variables were scaled), for Norway spruces at all sites but the Swedish one ,
Confident intervals including 0 mean the variable has no significant effect of sapling last shoot length ,
Presence (1) / absence (0), mean centered-scaled body masses and percentage of each tree species in the whole year diet of ungulate species occurring at each site. U.P.I. stands for Ungulate Pressure Index ,
Variation of the empirical ungulate pressure index, for each site and tree species, according to the mean winter temperature of the sites ,
Variation of the mean number of adult trees ha-1 of all tree species, for each climatic and browsing scenario 311 ,
Variation of the basal area throughout the century in each climatic-browsing scenario, for each tree species G. Variation of the mean number of saplings between 20 and 70 cm tall, for each species, all climatic modalities crossed with B1 browsing modality. Circles represent the climatic threshold under which the number of saplings decreases throughout the century, its colour the corresponding drought frequency Résumé ! L'inquiétude ,
!le!recours!aux!forêts!mélangées!est!envisagé!comme! ,
, ! bénéficiant! à! l'épicéa,! lorsqu'ils! sont! soumis! à! une! forte! pression!d'abroutissement.!A!l'échelle!des!traits!foliaires,!nous!trouvons!des!réponses!différentes! entre!les!trois!essences!aux!pressions!du!climat!et!de!l'abroutissement,!le!sapin!étant!le!seul!à! exprimer!une!réponse!claire!à!l, !Nous!mettons!en!évidence!une!quasi-inversion!d'essences!entre!sapin!et!épicéa!au! niveau! de! la! strate! de! régénération
! Nos! résultats! démontrent! également! une! diminution! de! l'abroutissement! avec! l'augmentation!de!la!température!hivernale!et!un!effet!plus!important!de!l ,
! Enfin,! via! une! approche!de!modélisation,!nous!avons!simulé!la!dynamique!d'un!peuplement!mélangé!de!sapin ,
, hêtre!et!épicéa!sur!une!durée!de!100!ans,!et!montré!une!modification!des!seuils